Will HK Property Prices fall with the migration of BNO HK Citizens moving to the UK?

As we welcome the year of Bull 2021 with open hands and minds, The remains of a nightmarish backdrop of the unusual year 2020 still haunt us. 2020 was for sure a Rough patch for Hong Kong’s property market; the mortgage rate was recorded low during the protest phase and now sudden reallocation of Hongkongers to British Lands. 

Many Hong Kong residents are renewing their BNO passports, and many are looking up their options. It is estimated that 2.9m are eligible for BNO passports. Additionally, according to the UK government, as many as 2.3m of their dependents would also be eligible ( figures by Bloomberg). Noticeable in the Hong Kong property market after picking up most of the digital breadcrumbs left behind by various bloggers and influencers, A huge ripple will stir away from the property market’s stability in our beloved Hong Kong.

A big question lingering around is that the quantitative Migration of Hong Kong BNO( British National Overseas) passport Citizens to the United Kingdom will put the property market on a declining slope or the side effects are acceptable? 

Furthermore, a factual note leads us to a statement by Thomas Lam, Executive Director, Head of Valuation & Advisory. ” The property prices have fallen 4-5% from their peak in 2019, which is less than we anticipated. Recently, first-hand residential sales have been booming, reflecting that buyers’ purchasing power remained. We believe this excellent momentum will carry on to the upcoming year. In the long run, it is expected that the mass residential property prices in Hong Kong will drop by 5% next year. Whereas a recent article from SCMP gives us high hopes for a steady increment in property prices by spring.”

Since the very beginning of 2021, Hong Kong Financial and Property market is on a steady and slow recovering stage and shows a great deal of improvement with the vaccination plans on record by the end of this month. The Instinctive feelings of many reputed Economists and Newsmakers give us a prosperous and vigilant outlook. But as said by Newton, “Every action has an equal AND opposite reaction,” So this new visible movement can effectively cause much disturbance.

Approximately there are 3 million BNO’s in Hong Kong If all planned to settle down on British lands. There Will be a gushing rise in flat sales owned by these BNO’s in Hong Kong to Buy flats in Britain. This will allow compromised transactions resulting in a big breakdown in Hong Kong properties’ selling prices. Bank Evaluation price will have visible effects; as a result, the asset will lose market value. Further research in this direction leads me to chat with some of the renowned property agents. While having a small chat with well-known property agents.

Many wells property agents Ltd @Tin Shui Wai ,Mr. Eddie Cheung says “ it is a very early stage to ensure that BNO movement will positively or negatively impact future dealings, But as of the current scenario market is very stable, and the remaining year is expected to improve.”

On contrary to this Sotheby’s International Realty (Central, HK) agent said “the situation has effectively caused a decline in property prices and expecting more this year.”

One more Midland Realty International agent gives us high hopes due to vaccination on board and the China-USA relationship getting better. The Covid outbreak is falling, so; the market will improve.

Savills (HK) Ltd agent -Residential services hints that the market is fragile and going through a bad sales and lease phase.  

“We anticipate Hong Kong residential property prices will fall a further 5% in 2021 after sliding by about 7% as at end October 2020 from their peak in June 2019,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Edward Chan.

As mixed opinions expressed by various other Property dealers in Hong Kong, I hope for the phase to pass without giving us a major throwback. The suppression of the Pandemic is an encouraging reason for the betterment of property prices in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong has remained resilient despite this unrest. The UK is granting five passports a minute to Hong Kong residents. The monthly numbers began increasing dramatically in July. This was when the UK announced the new visa to BNO passport holders in Hong Kong. The visa allows eligible people and their dependents to reside in Britain for five years and provides an easier path towards Citizenship (posted by Marcus Sohlberg).

The network links among various bloggers and online web content lead us to surprising good vibes in unknown territories for 2021. The predictions As countries become more prepared to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and positive progress are observed in potential vaccines. The Hong Kong SAR property industry can expect positive growth in 2021. The Hong Kong Growth Portfolio launched in September 2020 is US$2.9 billion (source: Randstad).

Whereas real estate Asia suggested, The online survey, conducted in late June 2020 and involving 500 Hong Kong citizens, reflected quite polarized views about the housing market. While 39% of respondents expect an average growth of 9.4% in home prices in the next six months, 22% anticipate an average drop of 11.2% within the same period. 20 Jul 2021.

This massive mobilization would effectively cause a delay in the stabilization of Hong Kong’s property market and economic development. We, at this moment, hopefully, wait and watch the unwinding of reality in the near future. 

I wish prosperity to the Hong Kong Property Market and Economy. I, with this, conclude my story with a positive note that “All is well if it ends well. Only a handful of stories stick till the end; hopefully, mine is counted in. I wish everyone in Hong Kong a productive and vigilant New year. The supposal theory works out for me; there is a visible decline supported by factual information available. For Assurance and Confirmed status, we should wait for the right time near the corner.